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At the four-hour time scale it is also necessary to find the candle that would close above the simple moving average. The potential outcomes are barbelled, or binary, as opposed to distributed normally around zero, as most stocks are: As a result, implied volatility, which is a measure of future stock movements and assumes a normal distribution around zero, is virtually meaningless when binary outcomes are involved and optionsderivatives and associated structured notes need to be analyzed in a very different manner.
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